Sunday, April 22, 2007

Sorry about the teaser post eariler... I started to post and got pulled away.

This software I mentioned is a really cool way to see if you're "lucky" or not.

Let me explain. Often in poker, the skill factor is removed, and your fate is in the cards. We put our faith in math, hoping that in the long run our good decisions will be rewarded with fourtunes.

An example:

I have 2 queens vs As8s on a board of 2c-2s-5s-6h
We both go all-in for $100.
I have the best hand, but of course, my opponent can get an Ace or any spade (except the Q of spades because it make me a full house) and win the pot. That's 11 outs if I'm counting correctly.
So I should win this hand 75% of the time, but 25% of the time, my opponent will win.

So we calculate the equity of this hand. If we played this hand a million times, some times I would lose $100, other times I would win $100, but I would average a win of $75 per hand (75% of $100 is $75).

We call these things "sklansky bucks", named after the famous poker author. So anyways, I found a program that calulate your sklansky bucks. How much money SHOULD I have (if the percentages always evened out, which they wont in the short run).

So I ran my numbers. Am I lucky!? Comon, please be lucky!

found 2529 headsup allin situations
won: 1566 lost: 900 tied: 63
average potsize: 173.50$
average ev: 0.6052
money won: 266722.49$
money expected (based on allin equity): 263013.03$
money difference: +3709.46$
max money diff: 2007-01-13 00:59:32+09 at +5015.01$
min money diff: 2006-09-13 11:49:21+09 at -201.53$
total_bet: 212662.07$


Hahaha. So yeah, I'm up $3709.46 more than I should be! I'll take it!
It's also interesting to note, that when I get all my money in, I'm generally a 60% favourite to win. If I keep that up, the money should continue to flow in.

Instructions on how to set this up for yourself (from TheProdigy on 2+2)

D/L this file and put it in a folder with the rest of these

you have to put pokenum.exe into the same directory**

Download Pokenum.exe in this link**

and also the postgres jdbc drivers (im using 8.2)

put everything into the same folder, edit settings.txt and run the bat

have fun

This was made by advis0r, his name is the same on stars if you want
to donate. I assume you need to have your database in postgresql to do

So go ahead and give this a try. Let me know if you're lucky or not!


Adam said...

Sooooo confused here about pretty much everything in this post. What's up w/ the $263,013 amount you were expected to win? You play $200 nl, I dont get that at all. Also can't figure out the link b/c it's in a different language. Also does this go through your pokertracker stats and figure this out? I'm just so confused w/ this whole post, but I'm very interested and would love to be able to do this myself if it's based on real stuff.

the_main said...

It is most certianly based on real stuff. The program locates every situation where you are all-in WITH CARDS STILL TO COME. That is, when there is no more betting left, and your fate rests with the cards.

Because it only takes these situations into account, the money expected does seem high relative to the stakes. (for example, it doesnt count the ~$200/hr I pay in blinds, hands I fold, etc.)

And yes, the program goes through your pokertracker DB.

It seems as though the file has been removed... i'll try to rehost.

the_main said...

Ok, file is rehosted.
Also, you may to remane the file from: to a .jar file.

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